elioe's tracks

Above: Possibly the most DOOMy Atlantic track of 2020. The actual Cat 4 landfall of Laura in Louisiana was bad enough. But 180-190 mph winds in Florida Keys, 195-205 mph winds while raking Sarasota and Bradenton? That would have been worse by at least an order of magnitude.   These tracks, or lack of those, have been earlier discussed in separate blog entries system-wise or time-wise: Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias TD 10 Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Omar Nana Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Beta Wilfred Alpha Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota ghost storms Jan-May ghost storm Jun-Jul ghost storms Aug-Oct ghost storms Nov-Dec In 2020, I analysed 557 model cycles. I made 196 tracks of storms, that actually formed later. I made 261 tracks of ghost storms. I missed 295 times cyclogenesis, which actually happened within 480 hours. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 57 hits, 20 false detections and 12 misses. 77 available posi...

I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic (north of equator and west of Greenwich) 58 times in November thru December of 2020. Tracks were made of 19 systems. In the calculations, crossover into East Pacific as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to dissipation. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there was 2 false detections. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there were 5 false detections. At the lead time of 4 days ( 96 hours), there were 8 false detections. At the lead time of 5 days ( 120 hours), there were 7 false detections. At the lead time of 6 days ( 144 hours), there were 6 false detections. At the lead time of 7 days ( 168 hours), there were 6 false detections. At the lead time of 8 days ( 192 hours), there were 4 false detections. At the lead time of 9 days ( 216 hours), there were 3 false detections. At the lead time of 10 days ( 240 ...