elioe's tracks

  2023 Atlantic hurricane season nameable storms - hurricanes - major hurricanes Final predictions as of June 1st, 2023 Deadline for new and revised predictions was May 31st, 2023 at 23:59 UTC italics indicates midpoint of a range --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Arkenar (crewed) 15.5-7-2 (@avplutoenjoyer) Athena 13-6-3 BaltimoreBrian 16-9-4 Blade 16-8-3 (@winterice) DOM-O 13-6-2 (@BigOlGoofyWorld) Duane A. Linn (Be Mindful) 22-7-5 (@ThePuritanSage) elioe 11-7-2 (@elioeFIN) GatorWX 12-5-2 Harold Carr 12-6-2 (@HaroldCarr10) heartistrueblue 11-7-2 (@NotKaren_68) Jason Ludwig 8-3-1 (@JasonLud1198) jem 8-4-2 (@jemtrails) John Marschand 8-3-1 (@InMyBAGel) Joseph Sturch 13-7-4 justbooket 11-5-1 (@justbooket) JustWatchingSocietyFall 18-5-2 (@AnAmerican2773) Lemuel Taylor 15-7-3 (@LemTay1248) Liam 13-5-2 (@cleanse__) LimWx (Off Season from Hurricanes) 15-6.5-3 (@LimWeather) Matt Schiess 16-9-3 (@wayfastwxnerd)...

As I'm writing this, post-season analysis has advanced to the point, that any changes in seasonal totals (14-8-2) are unlikely. The winner is clear: Congratulations Telford Holmes !!!!! The combined error is calculated as follows: sqrt( (E_ns)^2 / 12.1 + (E_hu)^2 / 6.4 + (E_mh)^2 / 2.7 )   where E_ns is error in number of nameable storms, E_hu is error in number of hurricanes and E_mh is error in number of of major hurricanes. The following has the format of ranking. / predicted named storms / predicted hurricanes / predicted major hurricanes / combined error / and Disqus/Twitter handle at time of giving prediction (possible Twitter account name in parentheses)  1. / 14   /  8 /  3   /  0.60858 / Telford Holmes  2. / 14   /  7 /  3   /  0.72569 / Rommel Gomez Vera (@habboerwin98)  3. / 16   /  8 /  3   /  0.83723 / elioe (@elioeFIN)  4. ...

Totals for North Atlantic hurricane season: 13 (sub)tropical cyclones, 11 nameable storms, 7 hurricanes, 2 major (ACE=71) Totals for East Pacific hurricane season: 19 (sub)tropical cyclones, 18 nameable storms, 12 hurricanes, 6 major (ACE=140) Totals for Central Pacific hurricane season: 3 tropical cyclones, 2 nameable storms, 1 hurricane, 1 major Totals for Pacific typhoon season: 22 storms, 11 typhoons, 6 super typhoons (JTWC count) Totals for North Indian Ocean cyclone season: 3 storms, 2 hurricane-equivalent, 1 major hurricane-equivalent (JTWC count) Two (sub)tropical storms in Mediterranean, no hurricanes No (sub)tropical cyclones in Baltic Sea State of Niño 3.4: becoming neutral in MAM, weak El Niño in MJJ Arctic sea ice minimum: 3.33 million km² Global annual average temperature: 1.05 degrees Celsius above 20th century average Circle coloration scheme Individual storm tracks in North Atlantic Tropical Storm ARLENE Tropical Depression TWO Tropical Storm BRET Hurricane CINDY H...

 As I'm writing this, post-season analysis has advanced to the point, that any changes in seasonal totals are unlikely. The winner is clear: Congratulations Joseph Sturch !!!!!     The combined error is calculated as follows: sqrt( (E_ns)^2 / 12.1 + (E_hu)^2 / 6.4 + (E_mh)^2 / 2.7 )   where E_ns is error in number of nameable storms, E_hu is error in number of hurricanes and E_mh is error in number of of major hurricanes. The following has the format of ranking. / predicted named storms / predicted hurricanes / predicted major hurricanes / combined error and Disqus/Twitter handle at time of giving prediction      1. / 20 / 8 / 4 / 0.48877 Joseph Sturch 97L(Ravensfan)  2. / 19 / 7 / 4 / 0.57496 Barefootontherocks  2. / 19 / 7 / 4 / 0.57496 Weatherfan1013  4. / 21 / 9 / 4 / 0.79057 TornadoFan  5. / 20 / 9 / 4 / 0.84122 Seattleite  6. / 23 / 8 / 5 / 0.92585 SRQfl  7. / 18 / 8 / 4 / 0.94871 ClimateNHBSH ...

Above: Possibly the most ridiculous Eastern Pacific track of 2021. No, Kevin didn't reach 215 mph winds... These tracks, or lack of those, have been earlier discussed in separate blog entries system-wise or time-wise: Andres Blanca Carlos Dolores Enrique Felicia Guillermo Hilda Jimena Ignacio Kevin Linda Marty Nora Olaf Pamela Rick Terry Sandra ghost storms Jan-May ghost storms Jun-Jul ghost storms Aug-Oct ghost storms Nov-Dec In 2021, I analysed 328 model cycles. I made 158 tracks of storms, that actually formed later. I made 105 tracks of ghost storms. I missed 150 times cyclogenesis, which actually happened within 504 hours. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 30 hits, 15 false detections and 5 misses. 43 available position comparisons produce an average error of 53 nautical miles. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 41 hits, 17 false detections and 2 misses. 49 available position comparisons produce an average error of 82 nau...

  Above: Possibly the most ridiculous Atlantic track of 2021. Yes, Sam became strong. But 200 mph? Nah. These tracks, or lack of those, have been earlier discussed in separate blog entries system-wise or time-wise: Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Kate Julian Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda ghost storms Jan-May ghost storms Jun-Jul ghost storms Aug-Oct ghost storms Nov-Dec In 2021, I analysed 328 model cycles. I made 60 tracks of storms, that actually formed later. I made 110 tracks of ghost storms. I missed 249 times cyclogenesis, which actually happened within 504 hours. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 22 hits, 9 false detections and 7 misses. 31 available position comparisons produce an average error of 59 nautical miles. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 20 hits, 22 false detections and 12 misses. 39 available position comparisons produce an average error of 92 nautic...

I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in East Pacific (north of equator and east of 140 degrees west) 3 times in November thru December of 2021. Tracks were made of 1 system. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there was 0 false detections. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there was 0 false detections. At the lead time of 4 days ( 96 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 5 days ( 120 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 6 days ( 144 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 7 days ( 168 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 8 days ( 192 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 9 days ( 216 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 10 days ( 240 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 11 days ( 264 hours), there was 1...