Verification of tracks made on Joyce using GEFS mean fields

I made two tracks about Tropical Storm Joyce. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 16 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Even in those two cases, where I detected Joyce, I projected it to remain subtropical.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 11, 12Z thru September 19, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

 

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the 2 tracks, formation times ranged between September 12, 00Z and September 12, 06Z. Average was September 12, 03Z and median was September 12, 03Z.

In the 18 cases (2 tracks and 16 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 0. Average was Category -1.78 and median was Category -2.

In the 2 tracks, dissipation times ranged between September 15, 00Z and September 15, 18Z. Average was September 15, 09Z and median was September 15, 09Z. 

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 223 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 245 nautical miles. 

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 447 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 515 nautical miles. 

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 8 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 8 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 10 misses. No available position comparisons.

 

Circle coloration scheme

 

 

Here are the tracks once again:

 

September 9, 18Z run:

September 10, 12Z run:

 The complete misses were from following GEFS runs:

August 27, 12Z

August 27, 18Z

August 28, 06Z

August 28, 18Z

August 29, 12Z

 

August 29, 18Z

August 30, 12Z

August 31, 18Z

September 1, 12Z

September 2, 12Z

 

September 3, 12Z

September 4, 12Z

September 5, 06Z

September 6, 06Z

September 7, 12Z

 

September 9, 12Z