Verification of ghost storm tracks of November 2018

January 02, 2019

I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic 28 times in November 2018. Tracks were made of six systems.

I made no Atlantic tracks in December, so this is my final ghost storm verification for 2018.

In the calculations, crossover to Eastern Pacific or Mediterranean is considered equal to dissipation.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 5 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 5 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 5 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 1 false detections.

Ghost storm #75

This was mentioned by NHC with a high chance of formation, but eventually just went poof.

November 1, 06Z run:

November 1, 18Z run:

November 2, 06Z run:

November 3, 06Z run:

November 10, 12Z run:

November 11, 06Z run:

Ghost storm #76

This was a SW Caribbean ghost storm with mostly EPac crossover. Not identifiable with anything real due to long lead time.

November 7, 18Z run:

November 8, 06Z run:

November 11, 06Z run:

November 11, 18Z run:

November 12, 06Z run:

November 12, 18Z run:

November 13, 06Z run:

Ghost storm #77

This became a nice-looking low, but remained extratropical. Here it is seen NE of Madeira.

November 8, 12Z run:

November 11, 18Z run:

November 13, 12Z run:

November 13, 18Z run:

November 14, 06Z run:

November 15, 06Z run:

Ghost storm #78

This was a pretty disorganized extratropical system, seen here northeast of Madeira.

November 11, 18Z run:

November 13, 06Z run:

November 13, 12Z run:

November 13, 18Z run:

November 14, 06Z run:

Ghost storm #79

This isolated incident is not identifiable due to large lead time.

November 19, 12Z run:

Ghost storm #80

This extratropical system was mentioned by NHC as a candidate for subtropical transition. Here the impressive-looking system is seen ENE of Bermuda, after its mention had already been dropped.