Ranking of 2018 Atlantic hurricane season predictions
As I'm writing this, season totals stand at 15-8-2. Oscar is not expected to be upgraded to a major. Post-season analysis may downgrade Isaac to a tropical storm, and/or add the February system as a subtropical storm. Whether it's 15-8-2, 15-7-2, 16-8-2 or 16-7-2, it doesn't matter in terms of the winner...
Congratulations, capt deez!
The combined error is calculated as follows:
sqrt( (E_ns/N_ns)^2 + (E_hu/N_hu)^2 + (E_mh/N_mh)^2 )
where E_ns is error and N_ns is actual number of nameable storms,
sqrt( (E_ns/N_ns)^2 + (E_hu/N_hu)^2 + (E_mh/N_mh)^2 )
where E_ns is error and N_ns is actual number of nameable storms,
E_hu is error and N_hu is actual number of hurricanes and
E_mh is error and N_mh is actual number of major hurricanes.
The following has the format of
ranking. / predicted named storms / predicted hurricanes / predicted major hurricanes / combined error and Disqus handle at time of giving prediction
1. / 14 / 7 / 2 / 0.14167 capt deez
2. / 12 / 7 / 2 / 0.23585 Hoon
3. / 15 / 6 / 2 / 0.25000 Seattleite
4. / 14 / 6 / 2 / 0.25874 TropicalAnalystwx13
5. / 13.5 / 6 / 2 / 0.26926 TROPICALCYCLONEALERT
6. / 13 / 6 / 2 / 0.28333 daddyjames
6. / 13 / 6 / 2 / 0.28333 Hurricane4Caster
8. / 13 / 5.5 / 2 / 0.33976 Rd003
9. / 13 / 6 / 2.5 / 0.37786 typhonium
10. / 14 / 5 / 2 / 0.38088 GateKeeper
10. / 14 / 5 / 2 / 0.38088 IsoThunder
12. / 13 / 5 / 2 / 0.39800 win1gamegiantsplease
12. / 13 / 5 / 2 / 0.39800 Cameron Masiello
12. / 13 / 5 / 2 / 0.39800 West FL Bolts
15. / 12 / 5 / 2 / 0.42500 Stormwatch247
16. / 12 / 5.5 / 2.5 / 0.44739 HurricaneFan
17. / 11 / 5 / 2 / 0.46015 GTStormChaserCaleb
17. / 11 / 5 / 2 / 0.46015 MAweatherboy1
17. / 11 / 5 / 2 / 0.46015 Nrtiwlnvragn
20. / 10.5 / 6 / 2.5 / 0.46368 Eyewall
21. / 15 / 4 / 2 / 0.50000 thisisacreativename
22. / 16 / 8 / 3 / 0.50442 hurricaneivan
22. / 14 / 8 / 3 / 0.50442 Telford Holmes
22. / 14 / 8 / 3 / 0.50442 SunnyDaysFl
22. / 14 / 4 / 2 / 0.50442 InsideUK
26. / 15 / 9 / 3 / 0.51539 Giancarlo
26. / 15 / 7 / 3 / 0.51539 CrazyForStormsGuy
26. / 15 / 7 / 3 / 0.51539 StormChaser19
29. / 13 / 4 / 2 / 0.51747 HurricaneWatcher61
30. / 16 / 7 / 3 / 0.51968 Alexander Emmett
30. / 14 / 7 / 3 / 0.51968 KoriTheMan
32. / 13 / 7 / 3 / 0.53236 WXManWannabe
32. / 13 / 7 / 3 / 0.53236 Jrock74
32. / 13 / 7 / 3 / 0.53236 JRRP
32. / 13 / 7 / 3 / 0.53236 envoirment
32. / 17 / 7 / 3 / 0.53236 ChiThom
37. / 18 / 8 / 3 / 0.53852 Joseph Sturch
38. / 12.5 / 7 / 3 / 0.54167 Andre Brooks
39. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 0.55902 WeatherkidJoe2323
39. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 0.55902 Gene
39. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 0.55902 Lips Like Morphine
39. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 0.55902 Hurifisher
39. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 0.55902 guitarmanaaw
44. / 14 / 6 / 3 / 0.56298 Icybubba
44. / 14 / 6 / 3 / 0.56298 swflurker
44. / 16 / 10 / 3 / 0.56298 bayoubug
44. / 14 / 6 / 3 / 0.56298 ThisIsNotSparta
44. / 14 / 6 / 3 / 0.56298 Malik Boggs
49. / 11 / 4 / 2 / 0.56667 Bearded Glory
50. / 13 / 6 / 3 / 0.57470 Kandiman2484
50. / 17 / 6 / 3 / 0.57470 SRQfl
50. / 17 / 10 / 3 / 0.57470 Chancho1423
50. / 13 / 6 / 3 / 0.57470 all4hurricanes
54. / 19 / 9 / 3 / 0.58029 Herando Florida
55. / 10.5 / 4 / 2 / 0.58310 dre33
56. / 12 / 6 / 3 / 0.59372 HyperCyclone X
56. / 18 / 10 / 3 / 0.59372 Vintage Cars
58. / 11 / 6 / 1 / 0.61936 Mediarologist
59. / 14 / 5 / 3 / 0.62855 999Ai
59. / 14 / 5 / 1 / 0.62855 Kayla Sanders
61. / 13 / 5 / 3 / 0.63906 Mouse ears
61. / 13 / 5 / 3 / 0.63906 IDTH
63. / 12 / 4 / 3 / 0.73485 Linus
64. / 9 / 5 / 1 / 0.74204 Cheap Bandaids
65. / 9 / 3 / 1 / 0.89478 101010edwebster
66. / 15 / 8 / 4 / 1.00000 Cthulhu
66. / 15 / 8 / 4 / 1.00000 Wade
66. / 15 / 8 / 4 / 1.00000 StacHoumaLa
66. / 15 / 8 / 4 / 1.00000 Joshua
70. / 16 / 8 / 4 / 1.00222 Grothar
70. / 16 / 8 / 4 / 1.00222 Ron
70. / 14 / 8 / 4 / 1.00222 Shawn
70. / 14 / 8 / 4 / 1.00222 Lurkindanger
70. / 16 / 8 / 4 / 1.00222 SLU
70. / 14 / 8 / 4 / 1.00222 Caleb Hardee
70. / 16 / 8 / 4 / 1.00222 SWFLWx
77. / 15 / 7 / 4 / 1.00778 TheReaperofCanada
77. / 15 / 7 / 4 / 1.00778 Caribboy
79. / 17 / 8 / 4 / 1.00885 Nash40
79. / 17 / 8 / 4 / 1.00885 fyrebyrd042
81. / 16 / 9 / 4 / 1.00998 Hurricane Jose
81. / 14 / 7 / 4 / 1.00998 Mr. Neutral
81. / 16 / 9 / 4 / 1.00998 BaltimoreBrian
81. / 16 / 7 / 4 / 1.00998 BarbaraGermany
85. / 17 / 7 / 4 / 1.01656 Todd Alan
85. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 1.01656 Kallenjr69
85. / 17 / 7 / 4 / 1.01656 Michael Paul
85. / 17 / 7 / 4 / 1.01656 ChillinInTheKeys
85. / 17 / 7 / 4 / 1.01656 Michael Anderson
85. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 1.01656 Taz&Storm Master
85. / 13 / 7 / 4 / 1.01656 Arif Samad
85. / 13 / 7 / 4 / 1.01656 G. Bri
93. / 12 / 8 / 4 / 1.01980 Matt Barnell
94. / 15 / 6 / 4 / 1.03078 Cam Pine
95. / 16 / 10 / 4 / 1.03293 nasbah082001
95. / 14 / 10 / 4 / 1.03293 rmbjoe5806
95. / 14 / 6 / 4 / 1.03293 SeminoleWind
98. / 13 / 6 / 4 / 1.03936 beell
99. / 16.5 / 5 / 4 / 1.07267 wunderkidcayman@WU
100. / 17.5 / 7.5 / 4.5 / 1.26261 CyclonicEddz
101. / 18.5 / 9 / 4.5 / 1.27772 NH News
102. / 13 / 8 / 5 / 1.50591 OBXLurker
103. / 14 / 7 / 5 / 1.50667 Yvette Helen Owes
104. / 17 / 9 / 5 / 1.51109 bear90ofs
105. / 17 / 9 / 5 / 1.51109 882MB
106. / 18 / 8 / 5 / 1.51327 Mike
106. / 18 / 8 / 5 / 1.51327 DogeBane
108. / 18 / 8.5 / 5 / 1.51456 elsbethie
109. / 18 / 9 / 5 / 1.51843 Cyclone2016
110. / 17 / 10 / 5 / 1.52652 DewPointOneDrop
111. / 13 / 5 / 5 / 1.55190 Zachary Norgren
112. / 20 / 11 / 5 / 1.58169 elioe
112. / 20 / 11 / 5 / 1.58169 earthisanocean
114. / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1.73205 Hazel
114. / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1.73205 Great Winter of 2017
114. / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1.73205 Haoleboysurfec
117. / 19 / 10.5 / 5.5 / 1.79757 StayAlive77
118. / 18 / 12 / 6 / 2.07123 dabirds
119. / 21 / 12 / 6 / 2.10000 Samuel Lobdell
120. / 23 / 12 / 6 / 2.12942 WXColorado
121. / 19 / 15 / 6 / 2.19926 not a machine
122. / 16 / 11 / 7 / 2.52885 Xandra
123. / 21 / 11 / 7 / 2.55942 Navin Singh
124. / 83 / 83 / 83 / 41.81736 kenfine
ranking. / predicted named storms / predicted hurricanes / predicted major hurricanes / combined error and Disqus handle at time of giving prediction
1. / 14 / 7 / 2 / 0.14167 capt deez
2. / 12 / 7 / 2 / 0.23585 Hoon
3. / 15 / 6 / 2 / 0.25000 Seattleite
4. / 14 / 6 / 2 / 0.25874 TropicalAnalystwx13
5. / 13.5 / 6 / 2 / 0.26926 TROPICALCYCLONEALERT
6. / 13 / 6 / 2 / 0.28333 daddyjames
6. / 13 / 6 / 2 / 0.28333 Hurricane4Caster
8. / 13 / 5.5 / 2 / 0.33976 Rd003
9. / 13 / 6 / 2.5 / 0.37786 typhonium
10. / 14 / 5 / 2 / 0.38088 GateKeeper
10. / 14 / 5 / 2 / 0.38088 IsoThunder
12. / 13 / 5 / 2 / 0.39800 win1gamegiantsplease
12. / 13 / 5 / 2 / 0.39800 Cameron Masiello
12. / 13 / 5 / 2 / 0.39800 West FL Bolts
15. / 12 / 5 / 2 / 0.42500 Stormwatch247
16. / 12 / 5.5 / 2.5 / 0.44739 HurricaneFan
17. / 11 / 5 / 2 / 0.46015 GTStormChaserCaleb
17. / 11 / 5 / 2 / 0.46015 MAweatherboy1
17. / 11 / 5 / 2 / 0.46015 Nrtiwlnvragn
20. / 10.5 / 6 / 2.5 / 0.46368 Eyewall
21. / 15 / 4 / 2 / 0.50000 thisisacreativename
22. / 16 / 8 / 3 / 0.50442 hurricaneivan
22. / 14 / 8 / 3 / 0.50442 Telford Holmes
22. / 14 / 8 / 3 / 0.50442 SunnyDaysFl
22. / 14 / 4 / 2 / 0.50442 InsideUK
26. / 15 / 9 / 3 / 0.51539 Giancarlo
26. / 15 / 7 / 3 / 0.51539 CrazyForStormsGuy
26. / 15 / 7 / 3 / 0.51539 StormChaser19
29. / 13 / 4 / 2 / 0.51747 HurricaneWatcher61
30. / 16 / 7 / 3 / 0.51968 Alexander Emmett
30. / 14 / 7 / 3 / 0.51968 KoriTheMan
32. / 13 / 7 / 3 / 0.53236 WXManWannabe
32. / 13 / 7 / 3 / 0.53236 Jrock74
32. / 13 / 7 / 3 / 0.53236 JRRP
32. / 13 / 7 / 3 / 0.53236 envoirment
32. / 17 / 7 / 3 / 0.53236 ChiThom
37. / 18 / 8 / 3 / 0.53852 Joseph Sturch
38. / 12.5 / 7 / 3 / 0.54167 Andre Brooks
39. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 0.55902 WeatherkidJoe2323
39. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 0.55902 Gene
39. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 0.55902 Lips Like Morphine
39. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 0.55902 Hurifisher
39. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 0.55902 guitarmanaaw
44. / 14 / 6 / 3 / 0.56298 Icybubba
44. / 14 / 6 / 3 / 0.56298 swflurker
44. / 16 / 10 / 3 / 0.56298 bayoubug
44. / 14 / 6 / 3 / 0.56298 ThisIsNotSparta
44. / 14 / 6 / 3 / 0.56298 Malik Boggs
49. / 11 / 4 / 2 / 0.56667 Bearded Glory
50. / 13 / 6 / 3 / 0.57470 Kandiman2484
50. / 17 / 6 / 3 / 0.57470 SRQfl
50. / 17 / 10 / 3 / 0.57470 Chancho1423
50. / 13 / 6 / 3 / 0.57470 all4hurricanes
54. / 19 / 9 / 3 / 0.58029 Herando Florida
55. / 10.5 / 4 / 2 / 0.58310 dre33
56. / 12 / 6 / 3 / 0.59372 HyperCyclone X
56. / 18 / 10 / 3 / 0.59372 Vintage Cars
58. / 11 / 6 / 1 / 0.61936 Mediarologist
59. / 14 / 5 / 3 / 0.62855 999Ai
59. / 14 / 5 / 1 / 0.62855 Kayla Sanders
61. / 13 / 5 / 3 / 0.63906 Mouse ears
61. / 13 / 5 / 3 / 0.63906 IDTH
63. / 12 / 4 / 3 / 0.73485 Linus
64. / 9 / 5 / 1 / 0.74204 Cheap Bandaids
65. / 9 / 3 / 1 / 0.89478 101010edwebster
66. / 15 / 8 / 4 / 1.00000 Cthulhu
66. / 15 / 8 / 4 / 1.00000 Wade
66. / 15 / 8 / 4 / 1.00000 StacHoumaLa
66. / 15 / 8 / 4 / 1.00000 Joshua
70. / 16 / 8 / 4 / 1.00222 Grothar
70. / 16 / 8 / 4 / 1.00222 Ron
70. / 14 / 8 / 4 / 1.00222 Shawn
70. / 14 / 8 / 4 / 1.00222 Lurkindanger
70. / 16 / 8 / 4 / 1.00222 SLU
70. / 14 / 8 / 4 / 1.00222 Caleb Hardee
70. / 16 / 8 / 4 / 1.00222 SWFLWx
77. / 15 / 7 / 4 / 1.00778 TheReaperofCanada
77. / 15 / 7 / 4 / 1.00778 Caribboy
79. / 17 / 8 / 4 / 1.00885 Nash40
79. / 17 / 8 / 4 / 1.00885 fyrebyrd042
81. / 16 / 9 / 4 / 1.00998 Hurricane Jose
81. / 14 / 7 / 4 / 1.00998 Mr. Neutral
81. / 16 / 9 / 4 / 1.00998 BaltimoreBrian
81. / 16 / 7 / 4 / 1.00998 BarbaraGermany
85. / 17 / 7 / 4 / 1.01656 Todd Alan
85. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 1.01656 Kallenjr69
85. / 17 / 7 / 4 / 1.01656 Michael Paul
85. / 17 / 7 / 4 / 1.01656 ChillinInTheKeys
85. / 17 / 7 / 4 / 1.01656 Michael Anderson
85. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 1.01656 Taz&Storm Master
85. / 13 / 7 / 4 / 1.01656 Arif Samad
85. / 13 / 7 / 4 / 1.01656 G. Bri
93. / 12 / 8 / 4 / 1.01980 Matt Barnell
94. / 15 / 6 / 4 / 1.03078 Cam Pine
95. / 16 / 10 / 4 / 1.03293 nasbah082001
95. / 14 / 10 / 4 / 1.03293 rmbjoe5806
95. / 14 / 6 / 4 / 1.03293 SeminoleWind
98. / 13 / 6 / 4 / 1.03936 beell
99. / 16.5 / 5 / 4 / 1.07267 wunderkidcayman@WU
100. / 17.5 / 7.5 / 4.5 / 1.26261 CyclonicEddz
101. / 18.5 / 9 / 4.5 / 1.27772 NH News
102. / 13 / 8 / 5 / 1.50591 OBXLurker
103. / 14 / 7 / 5 / 1.50667 Yvette Helen Owes
104. / 17 / 9 / 5 / 1.51109 bear90ofs
105. / 17 / 9 / 5 / 1.51109 882MB
106. / 18 / 8 / 5 / 1.51327 Mike
106. / 18 / 8 / 5 / 1.51327 DogeBane
108. / 18 / 8.5 / 5 / 1.51456 elsbethie
109. / 18 / 9 / 5 / 1.51843 Cyclone2016
110. / 17 / 10 / 5 / 1.52652 DewPointOneDrop
111. / 13 / 5 / 5 / 1.55190 Zachary Norgren
112. / 20 / 11 / 5 / 1.58169 elioe
112. / 20 / 11 / 5 / 1.58169 earthisanocean
114. / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1.73205 Hazel
114. / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1.73205 Great Winter of 2017
114. / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1.73205 Haoleboysurfec
117. / 19 / 10.5 / 5.5 / 1.79757 StayAlive77
118. / 18 / 12 / 6 / 2.07123 dabirds
119. / 21 / 12 / 6 / 2.10000 Samuel Lobdell
120. / 23 / 12 / 6 / 2.12942 WXColorado
121. / 19 / 15 / 6 / 2.19926 not a machine
122. / 16 / 11 / 7 / 2.52885 Xandra
123. / 21 / 11 / 7 / 2.55942 Navin Singh
124. / 83 / 83 / 83 / 41.81736 kenfine
The blog post will be subject to revision, if official totals change, and if I'm not too lazy to revise!
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