Verification of tracks made on TD 4 (2017) using GEFS mean fields
This is a repost from summer 2017
I made 17 tracks about Tropical Depression Four. In four additional cases, I tried to generate tracks, but I missed the system entirely. Mostly I predicted the system to become a major hurricane, so intensity was very biased. The error was finalized by the fact, that in many cases, I predicted the system to undergo cyclogenesis only at a time, when in fact the system had already degenerated. But position tracking performance was good, I think. Unfortunately the last best track entry was at 06Z on July 12, so it is not possible to verify track performance for the timeframe, when the remnant spin continued to Florida Straits. In one case, my track continued all the way to July 23, and most of them continued until July 19.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical storms as "Category 0", tropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical cyclone as "Category -2".
I compare intensities only in cases, when either the best track data or my track has a tropical cyclone, or both. In other words, I leave the comparison out of calculations, if both best track data and my track lack a tropical cyclone.
The following lines will have the format:
date and time (UTC) yyyy/mm/dd/hh ... number of true detections ... number of misses ... number of false detections ... number of position comparisons ... number of intensity comparisons ... average error in intensity category ... bias in intensity category ... average error in latitude ... bias in latitude ... average error in longitude ... bias in longitude ... estimated scalar error in position (nautical miles) (not calculated correctly) ... calculated scalar bias in position (nautical miles)
2017/07/05/00... 0... 0... 1... 1... 1... 1.0... +1.0... 4.2... 4.2N... 12.5... 12.5W... 780... 780.
2017/07/05/06... 0... 0... 1... 1... 1... 1.0... +1.0... 4.8... 4.8N... 13.2... 13.2W... 830... 830.
2017/07/05/12... 0... 0... 4... 4... 4... 1.3... +1.3... 2.0... 2.0N... 4.0... 3.9W... 260... 260.
2017/07/05/18... 0... 0... 4... 4... 4... 2.0... +2.0... 1.8... 1.8N... 4.2... 3.9W... 270... 250.
2017/07/06/00... 4... 17... 0... 4... 21... 1.0... -0.6... 1.7... 1.7N... 4.2... 3.7W... 270... 240.
2017/07/06/06... 5... 16... 0... 5... 21... 1.0... -0.6... 1.9... 1.9N... 5.5... 4.9W... 340... 310.
2017/07/06/12... 5... 16... 0... 5... 21... 1.0... -0.5... 1.7... 1.7N... 5.2... 3.6W... 320... 230.
2017/07/06/18... 5... 16... 0... 5... 21... 1.0... -0.5... 1.4... 1.2N... 5.2... 3.6W... 310... 220.
2017/07/07/00... 7... 14... 0... 7... 21... 1.0... -0.4... 1.9... 1.8N... 4.1... 2.5W... 260... 180.
2017/07/07/06... 9... 12... 0... 9... 21... 1.0... -0.1... 1.5... 1.3N... 3.4... 1.8W... 220... 130.
2017/07/07/12... 11... 10... 0... 11... 21... 1.0... -0.1... 1.5... 1.1N... 3.0... 1.4W... 200... 100.
2017/07/07/18... 0... 0... 13... 13... 13... 2.2... +2.2... 1.6... 1.0N... 3.9... 2.5W... 240... 160.
2017/07/08/00... 0... 0... 13... 13... 13... 2.4... +2.4... 1.5... 0.8N... 3.8... 2.5W... 240... 150.
2017/07/08/06... 0... 0... 15... 15... 15... 2.2... +2.2... 1.4... 0.7N... 3.3... 2.2W... 210... 130.
2017/07/08/12... 0... 0... 16... 16... 16... 2.1... +2.1... 1.3... 0.5N... 3.2... 2.0W... 200... 120.
2017/07/08/18... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 2.2... +2.2... 1.0... 0.1N... 3.1... 2.0W... 190... 110.
2017/07/09/00... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 2.4... +2.4... 0.9... 0.5S... 2.6... 1.6W... 160... 100.
2017/07/09/06... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 2.6... +2.6... 1.0... 0.7S... 3.2... 2.2W... 190... 130.
2017/07/09/12... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 2.7... +2.7... 1.4... 1.2S... 3.1... 2.1W... 190... 140.
2017/07/09/18... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 2.9... +2.9... 1.7... 1.7S... 3.0... 2.1W... 200... 160.
2017/07/10/00... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 2.8... +2.8... 2.1... 2.1S... 3.0... 2.1W... 210... 170.
2017/07/10/06... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 3.2... +3.2... 2.2... 2.2S... 2.9... 2.0W... 210... 170.
2017/07/10/12... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 3.4... +3.4... 2.4... 2.3S... 2.9... 2.1W... 220... 180.
2017/07/10/18... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 3.5... +3.5... 2.6... 2.4S... 2.8... 2.0W... 220... 180.
2017/07/11/00... 0... 0... 16... 17... 16... 4.1... +4.1... 2.7... 2.4S... 2.8... 1.9W... 220... 180.
2017/07/11/06... 0... 0... 16... 17... 16... 4.1... +4.1... 2.7... 2.3S... 2.7... 1.8W... 220... 170.
2017/07/11/12... 0... 0... 16... 17... 16... 4.2... +4.2... 2.8... 2.3S... 2.7... 1.5W... 220... 160.
2017/07/11/18... 0... 0... 16... 17... 16... 4.0... +4.0... 2.8... 2.3S... 2.4... 1.3W... 210... 160.
2017/07/12/00... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 3.4... +3.4... 2.9... 2.3S... 2.4... 0.9W... 220... 150.
2017/07/12/06... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 3.6... +3.6... 2.9... 2.3S... 2.5... 0.3W... 220... 140.
2017/07/12/12... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.6... +3.6.
2017/07/12/18... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.4... +3.4.
2017/07/13/00... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.4... +3.4.
2017/07/13/06... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.3... +3.3.
2017/07/13/12... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.2... +3.2.
2017/07/13/18... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.2... +3.2.
2017/07/14/00... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.4... +3.4.
2017/07/14/06... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.2... +3.2.
2017/07/14/12... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.2... +3.2.
2017/07/14/18... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.2... +3.2.
2017/07/15/00... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.6... +3.6.
2017/07/15/06... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.6... +3.6.
2017/07/15/12... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.4... +3.4.
2017/07/15/18... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.4... +3.4.
2017/07/16/00... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.1... +3.1.
2017/07/16/06... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.2... +3.2.
2017/07/16/12... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.2... +3.2.
2017/07/16/18... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.1... +3.1.
2017/07/17/00... 0... 0... 15... 0... 15... 3.1... +3.1.
2017/07/17/06... 0... 0... 15... 0... 15... 2.9... +2.9.
2017/07/17/12... 0... 0... 15... 0... 15... 2.9... +2.9.
2017/07/17/18... 0... 0... 14... 0... 14... 3.1... +3.1.
2017/07/18/00... 0... 0... 14... 0... 14... 3.1... +3.1.
2017/07/18/06... 0... 0... 13... 0... 13... 3.0... +3.0.
2017/07/18/12... 0... 0... 13... 0... 13... 2.6... +2.6.
2017/07/18/18... 0... 0... 13... 0... 13... 2.6... +2.6.
2017/07/19/00... 0... 0... 13... 0... 13... 2.3... +2.3.
2017/07/19/06... 0... 0... 12... 0... 12... 2.3... +2.3.
2017/07/19/12... 0... 0... 11... 0... 11... 2.5... +2.5.
2017/07/19/18... 0... 0... 8... 0... 8... 2.6... +2.6.
2017/07/20/00... 0... 0... 8... 0... 8... 2.6... +2.6.
2017/07/20/06... 0... 0... 7... 0... 7... 2.1... +2.1.
2017/07/20/12... 0... 0... 6... 0... 6... 2.3... +2.3.
2017/07/20/18... 0... 0... 6... 0... 6... 2.5... +2.5.
2017/07/21/00... 0... 0... 5... 0... 5... 2.6... +2.6.
2017/07/21/06... 0... 0... 5... 0... 5... 2.2... +2.2.
2017/07/21/12... 0... 0... 4... 0... 4... 1.8... +1.8.
2017/07/21/18... 0... 0... 3... 0... 3... 1.7... +1.7.
2017/07/22/00... 0... 0... 2... 0... 2... 2.0... +2.0.
2017/07/22/06... 0... 0... 1... 0... 1... 2.0... +2.0.
2017/07/22/12... 0... 0... 1... 0... 1... 1.0... +1.0.
2017/07/22/18... 0... 0... 1... 0... 1... 1.0... +1.0.
2017/07/23/00... 0... 0... 1... 0... 1... 1.0... +1.0.
And for a few selected lead times:
120h... 0... 4... 7... 7... 11... 1.7... +1.0... 1.9... 0.9S... 1.6... 0.8E... 150... 70.
168h... 1... 3... 12... 13... 16... 2.6... +2.2... 2.4... 2.1S... 2.4... 1.3W... 200... 150.
240h... 0... 2... 17... 8... 19... 3.1... +2.9... 1.8... 0.7S... 4.7... 4.4W... 290... 250.
And here are the tracks, once again.
June 25, 12Z run:
June 29, 06Z run:
June 29, 18Z run:
https://uploads.disquscdn.c...
June 30, 06Z run:
June 30, 12Z run:
July 1, 18Z run:
July 2, 00Z run:
July 2, 06Z run:
July 2, 12Z run:
July 2, 18Z run:
July 3, 00Z run:
July 3, 06Z run:
July 3, 12Z run:
https://uploads.disquscdn.c...
July 3, 18Z run:
July 4, 00Z run:
July 4, 06Z run:
July 5, 06Z run:
The four runs I missed the entire system were June 22, 12Z and June 27, 06Z,12Z,18Z runs. In those cases, I predicted "Don" to form from a wave, which passed through Lesser Antilles a few days before TD 4 passed nearby.
I made 17 tracks about Tropical Depression Four. In four additional cases, I tried to generate tracks, but I missed the system entirely. Mostly I predicted the system to become a major hurricane, so intensity was very biased. The error was finalized by the fact, that in many cases, I predicted the system to undergo cyclogenesis only at a time, when in fact the system had already degenerated. But position tracking performance was good, I think. Unfortunately the last best track entry was at 06Z on July 12, so it is not possible to verify track performance for the timeframe, when the remnant spin continued to Florida Straits. In one case, my track continued all the way to July 23, and most of them continued until July 19.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical storms as "Category 0", tropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical cyclone as "Category -2".
I compare intensities only in cases, when either the best track data or my track has a tropical cyclone, or both. In other words, I leave the comparison out of calculations, if both best track data and my track lack a tropical cyclone.
The following lines will have the format:
date and time (UTC) yyyy/mm/dd/hh ... number of true detections ... number of misses ... number of false detections ... number of position comparisons ... number of intensity comparisons ... average error in intensity category ... bias in intensity category ... average error in latitude ... bias in latitude ... average error in longitude ... bias in longitude ... estimated scalar error in position (nautical miles) (not calculated correctly) ... calculated scalar bias in position (nautical miles)
2017/07/05/00... 0... 0... 1... 1... 1... 1.0... +1.0... 4.2... 4.2N... 12.5... 12.5W... 780... 780.
2017/07/05/06... 0... 0... 1... 1... 1... 1.0... +1.0... 4.8... 4.8N... 13.2... 13.2W... 830... 830.
2017/07/05/12... 0... 0... 4... 4... 4... 1.3... +1.3... 2.0... 2.0N... 4.0... 3.9W... 260... 260.
2017/07/05/18... 0... 0... 4... 4... 4... 2.0... +2.0... 1.8... 1.8N... 4.2... 3.9W... 270... 250.
2017/07/06/00... 4... 17... 0... 4... 21... 1.0... -0.6... 1.7... 1.7N... 4.2... 3.7W... 270... 240.
2017/07/06/06... 5... 16... 0... 5... 21... 1.0... -0.6... 1.9... 1.9N... 5.5... 4.9W... 340... 310.
2017/07/06/12... 5... 16... 0... 5... 21... 1.0... -0.5... 1.7... 1.7N... 5.2... 3.6W... 320... 230.
2017/07/06/18... 5... 16... 0... 5... 21... 1.0... -0.5... 1.4... 1.2N... 5.2... 3.6W... 310... 220.
2017/07/07/00... 7... 14... 0... 7... 21... 1.0... -0.4... 1.9... 1.8N... 4.1... 2.5W... 260... 180.
2017/07/07/06... 9... 12... 0... 9... 21... 1.0... -0.1... 1.5... 1.3N... 3.4... 1.8W... 220... 130.
2017/07/07/12... 11... 10... 0... 11... 21... 1.0... -0.1... 1.5... 1.1N... 3.0... 1.4W... 200... 100.
2017/07/07/18... 0... 0... 13... 13... 13... 2.2... +2.2... 1.6... 1.0N... 3.9... 2.5W... 240... 160.
2017/07/08/00... 0... 0... 13... 13... 13... 2.4... +2.4... 1.5... 0.8N... 3.8... 2.5W... 240... 150.
2017/07/08/06... 0... 0... 15... 15... 15... 2.2... +2.2... 1.4... 0.7N... 3.3... 2.2W... 210... 130.
2017/07/08/12... 0... 0... 16... 16... 16... 2.1... +2.1... 1.3... 0.5N... 3.2... 2.0W... 200... 120.
2017/07/08/18... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 2.2... +2.2... 1.0... 0.1N... 3.1... 2.0W... 190... 110.
2017/07/09/00... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 2.4... +2.4... 0.9... 0.5S... 2.6... 1.6W... 160... 100.
2017/07/09/06... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 2.6... +2.6... 1.0... 0.7S... 3.2... 2.2W... 190... 130.
2017/07/09/12... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 2.7... +2.7... 1.4... 1.2S... 3.1... 2.1W... 190... 140.
2017/07/09/18... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 2.9... +2.9... 1.7... 1.7S... 3.0... 2.1W... 200... 160.
2017/07/10/00... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 2.8... +2.8... 2.1... 2.1S... 3.0... 2.1W... 210... 170.
2017/07/10/06... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 3.2... +3.2... 2.2... 2.2S... 2.9... 2.0W... 210... 170.
2017/07/10/12... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 3.4... +3.4... 2.4... 2.3S... 2.9... 2.1W... 220... 180.
2017/07/10/18... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 3.5... +3.5... 2.6... 2.4S... 2.8... 2.0W... 220... 180.
2017/07/11/00... 0... 0... 16... 17... 16... 4.1... +4.1... 2.7... 2.4S... 2.8... 1.9W... 220... 180.
2017/07/11/06... 0... 0... 16... 17... 16... 4.1... +4.1... 2.7... 2.3S... 2.7... 1.8W... 220... 170.
2017/07/11/12... 0... 0... 16... 17... 16... 4.2... +4.2... 2.8... 2.3S... 2.7... 1.5W... 220... 160.
2017/07/11/18... 0... 0... 16... 17... 16... 4.0... +4.0... 2.8... 2.3S... 2.4... 1.3W... 210... 160.
2017/07/12/00... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 3.4... +3.4... 2.9... 2.3S... 2.4... 0.9W... 220... 150.
2017/07/12/06... 0... 0... 17... 17... 17... 3.6... +3.6... 2.9... 2.3S... 2.5... 0.3W... 220... 140.
2017/07/12/12... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.6... +3.6.
2017/07/12/18... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.4... +3.4.
2017/07/13/00... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.4... +3.4.
2017/07/13/06... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.3... +3.3.
2017/07/13/12... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.2... +3.2.
2017/07/13/18... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.2... +3.2.
2017/07/14/00... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.4... +3.4.
2017/07/14/06... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.2... +3.2.
2017/07/14/12... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.2... +3.2.
2017/07/14/18... 0... 0... 17... 0... 17... 3.2... +3.2.
2017/07/15/00... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.6... +3.6.
2017/07/15/06... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.6... +3.6.
2017/07/15/12... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.4... +3.4.
2017/07/15/18... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.4... +3.4.
2017/07/16/00... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.1... +3.1.
2017/07/16/06... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.2... +3.2.
2017/07/16/12... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.2... +3.2.
2017/07/16/18... 0... 0... 16... 0... 16... 3.1... +3.1.
2017/07/17/00... 0... 0... 15... 0... 15... 3.1... +3.1.
2017/07/17/06... 0... 0... 15... 0... 15... 2.9... +2.9.
2017/07/17/12... 0... 0... 15... 0... 15... 2.9... +2.9.
2017/07/17/18... 0... 0... 14... 0... 14... 3.1... +3.1.
2017/07/18/00... 0... 0... 14... 0... 14... 3.1... +3.1.
2017/07/18/06... 0... 0... 13... 0... 13... 3.0... +3.0.
2017/07/18/12... 0... 0... 13... 0... 13... 2.6... +2.6.
2017/07/18/18... 0... 0... 13... 0... 13... 2.6... +2.6.
2017/07/19/00... 0... 0... 13... 0... 13... 2.3... +2.3.
2017/07/19/06... 0... 0... 12... 0... 12... 2.3... +2.3.
2017/07/19/12... 0... 0... 11... 0... 11... 2.5... +2.5.
2017/07/19/18... 0... 0... 8... 0... 8... 2.6... +2.6.
2017/07/20/00... 0... 0... 8... 0... 8... 2.6... +2.6.
2017/07/20/06... 0... 0... 7... 0... 7... 2.1... +2.1.
2017/07/20/12... 0... 0... 6... 0... 6... 2.3... +2.3.
2017/07/20/18... 0... 0... 6... 0... 6... 2.5... +2.5.
2017/07/21/00... 0... 0... 5... 0... 5... 2.6... +2.6.
2017/07/21/06... 0... 0... 5... 0... 5... 2.2... +2.2.
2017/07/21/12... 0... 0... 4... 0... 4... 1.8... +1.8.
2017/07/21/18... 0... 0... 3... 0... 3... 1.7... +1.7.
2017/07/22/00... 0... 0... 2... 0... 2... 2.0... +2.0.
2017/07/22/06... 0... 0... 1... 0... 1... 2.0... +2.0.
2017/07/22/12... 0... 0... 1... 0... 1... 1.0... +1.0.
2017/07/22/18... 0... 0... 1... 0... 1... 1.0... +1.0.
2017/07/23/00... 0... 0... 1... 0... 1... 1.0... +1.0.
And for a few selected lead times:
120h... 0... 4... 7... 7... 11... 1.7... +1.0... 1.9... 0.9S... 1.6... 0.8E... 150... 70.
168h... 1... 3... 12... 13... 16... 2.6... +2.2... 2.4... 2.1S... 2.4... 1.3W... 200... 150.
240h... 0... 2... 17... 8... 19... 3.1... +2.9... 1.8... 0.7S... 4.7... 4.4W... 290... 250.
And here are the tracks, once again.
June 25, 12Z run:
https://uploads.disquscdn.c...
June 30, 06Z run:
https://uploads.disquscdn.c...
July 3, 18Z run:
The four runs I missed the entire system were June 22, 12Z and June 27, 06Z,12Z,18Z runs. In those cases, I predicted "Don" to form from a wave, which passed through Lesser Antilles a few days before TD 4 passed nearby.
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