Verification of tracks made of Fernand using GEFS mean fields
I made four tracks of Tropical Storm Fernand. Additionally, within
384
hours of cyclogenesis, there were nine instances, when I missed
cyclogenesis entirely. The few detections were mostly at large lead times.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 1, 18Z thru September 5, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the four tracks, formation times ranged between August 31, 06Z and September 5, 06Z. Average was September 1, 19Z and median was August 31, 21Z.
In the 13 cases (4 tracks and 9 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 0. Average was Category -1.46 and median was Category -2.
In the four tracks, dissipation times ranged between September 4, 12Z and September 6, 00Z. Average was September 5, 04Z and median was September 5, 03Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 108 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 329 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 523 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 697 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 1, 18Z thru September 5, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the four tracks, formation times ranged between August 31, 06Z and September 5, 06Z. Average was September 1, 19Z and median was August 31, 21Z.
In the 13 cases (4 tracks and 9 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 0. Average was Category -1.46 and median was Category -2.
In the four tracks, dissipation times ranged between September 4, 12Z and September 6, 00Z. Average was September 5, 04Z and median was September 5, 03Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 108 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 329 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 523 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 697 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
August 19, 12Z run:
August 20, 06Z run:
August 21, 06Z run:
September 2, 00Z run:
The complete misses were from the following runs:
August 18, 12Z
August 22, 12Z
August 23, 06Z
August 25, 06Z
August 26, 12Z
August 27, 06Z
August 28, 06Z
August 29, 00Z
August 31, 00Z
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