Verification of tracks made of Nestor using GEFS mean fields

I made four tracks of Tropical Storm Nestor. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were six instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available October 15, 18Z thru October 19, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the four tracks, formation times ranged between October 18, 00Z and October 20, 06Z. Average was October 18, 18Z and median was October 18, 09Z.

In the ten cases (4 tracks and 6 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category -0.80 and median was Category -2.

In the four tracks, dissipation times ranged between October 20, 06Z and October 27, 00Z. Average was October 23, 05Z and median was October 22, 18Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 30 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 67 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 230 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 548 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
 

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
 

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
 

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

 

Circle coloration scheme

 

 

 

Here are the tracks once again.

 

October 5, 06Z run:

 

 

October 7, 06Z run:

October 16, 06Z run:

October 17, 06Z run:

The complete misses were from the following runs:

 

October 3, 06Z

October 9, 06Z

October 11, 06Z

October 13, 06Z

October 14, 12Z

 

October 15, 12Z