Verification of Atlantic ghost storm tracks of August-October 2019

I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic (north of equator and west of Greenwich) 56 times in August thru October of 2019. Tracks were made of 23 systems.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 5 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 11 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 13 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 17 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 23 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 27 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 27 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 29 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 28 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 32 false detections.

Circle coloration scheme


Ghost storm L#39

These were just something bizarre. Most of these tracks were made in July.

August 1, 06Z run:


Ghost storm L#40

Most of these tracks were made in July.

August 1, 06Z run:


Ghost storm L#41

This Atl to EPac crossover track is identifiable with nothing due to long lead time.

August 4, 12Z run:


Ghost storm L#42

These are identifiable with a tropical wave, extending from Mexico to Bay of Campeche in the following synoptic chart.


August 7, 06Z run:





August 14, 00Z run:


August 15, 06Z run:





August 16, 06Z run:






System L#43

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Dorian.

System L#44

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was (also) Dorian. 

 Ghost storm L#45

This lone track is identifiable with the frontal zone near the Azores in the following synoptic chart.



August 16, 06Z run:


Ghost storm L#46

This lone track is identifiable with nothing.

August 16, 06Z run:






Ghost storm L#47


This system is identifiable with an area of interest, monitored by NHC for a long time.


August 19, 12Z run:


August 20, 06Z run:


August 23, 06Z run:


August 25, 06Z run:


August 27, 06Z run:


August 28, 06Z run:


August 29, 00Z run:


August 31, 00Z run:


September 2, 00Z run:


System L#48

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Erin.

System L#49

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Fernand.

System L#50

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Gabrielle.

System L#51

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was (also) Dorian.      

Ghost storm L#52  

This single track is identifiable with the 1020mbar low pressure system near the Azores in the following synoptic chart.



August 26, 12Z run:


System L#53

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Jerry.

Ghost storm L#54  

These tracks are identifiable with a tropical wave, which was monitored by NHC twice: in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and in Caribbean.



August 31, 00Z run:


September 6, 06Z run:


September 7, 06Z run:


September 8, 06Z run:


September 10, 06Z run:


September 11, 06Z run:


System L#55

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was (also) Fernand.

System L#56

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Lorenzo.

Ghost storm L#57   

This isolated incident is identifiable with absolutely nothing.

September 8, 06Z run:


System L#58

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Karen.

Ghost storm L#59 

This track is not identifiable with anything real.

September 22, 06Z run:


Ghost storm L#60

These tracks are identifiable with a tropical wave, shown extending south from Cabo Verde in the following synoptic chart.


September 22, 06Z run:


September 23, 06Z run:


Ghost storm L#61

This is identifiable with Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E.

September 25, 06Z run:


Ghost storm L#62

This is also identifiable with Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E.

September 25, 06Z run:






September 26, 06Z run:





September 28, 06Z run:


October 2, 06Z run:


October 5, 06Z run:


October 7, 06Z run:


October 9, 06Z run:



Ghost storm L#63

This is also identifiable with Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E.


September 27, 06Z run:


September 28, 06Z run:


September 30, 12Z run:


Ghost storm E#50

This was also identifiable with Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E. There were several tracks designated as this EPac-originating system, with only one crossover to Atlantic.

September 29, 12Z run:


System L#64

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was TD 15.

Ghost storm L#65 

This lone track is not identifiable with anything due to long lead time.

October 2, 06Z run:


System L#66

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was (also) TD 15.

 System L#67

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Nestor.

Ghost storm L#68   

These tracks are identifiable with this extremely low-latitude area of interest briefly monitored by NHC.


October 11, 06Z run:


October 13, 06Z run:


October 15, 12Z run:


October 16, 06Z run:


Ghost storm L#69

These are most closely identifiable with the trough extending SW from Senegal in the following synoptic chart. Only tracks at least partially west of prime meridian are shown.



October 17, 06Z run:


October 18, 06Z run:


October 21, 06Z run:





Ghost storm L#70

These tracks are identifiable with nothing.

October 17, 06Z run:





October 18, 06Z run:


Ghost storm L#71

These are definitely not identifiable.

October 18, 06Z run:





October 19, 06Z run:


System L#72

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Pablo.

System L#73

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Olga.

Ghost storm L#74   


This isolated incident can't be identified.

October 22, 06Z run:


System L#75

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Rebekah.

Ghost storm L#76 

This is not identifiable at all. These tracks continued in November.

October 29, 06Z run:


October 30, 06Z run:


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