Verification of Atlantic ghost storm tracks of November-December 2019


I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic (north of equator and west of Greenwich) 15 times in November and December of 2019. Tracks were made of nine systems.
 
Entering the East Pacific is considered equal to dissipation in the calculations.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 1 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 5 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 3 false detections. 

Circle coloration scheme
 

 


 Ghost storm L#76

This is not identifiable at all. These tracks began in October.
 
November 1, 06Z run:
 

November 4, 06Z run:




Ghost storm L#77

This is identifiable with an extratropical low, shown with 992mbar pressure near Nova Scotia in the following synoptic chart.


November 15, 06Z run:


Ghost storm L#78

I have no idea what this is.

November 17, 18Z run:


November 18, 06Z run:


November 20, 06Z run:


November 23, 06Z run:




System L#79

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Sebastien.

Ghost storm L#80

This is unidentifiable due to long lead time.

November 19, 06Z run:


Ghost storm L#81

This is just something weird.

November 23, 06Z run:


November 24, 06Z run:


Ghost storm L#82

This is just ridiculous.

December 7, 12Z run:


Ghost storm L#83

This isn't identifiable with any particular center of low pressure.

December 24, 12Z run:


December 25, 12Z run:


Ghost storm L#84

This became a pretty looking extratropical swirl. In the following synoptic chart, it is west of Ireland.


December 29, 12Z run:




December 30, 00Z run:

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