Verification of tracks made of Bertha
I made seven tracks of Tropical Storm Bertha, before it was assessed as
a tropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after that point.
Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 45 instances,
when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. All the detections of cyclogenesis were at excessively large lead times.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available May 25, 18Z thru May 28, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the seven tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between May 22, 18Z and May 25, 18Z. Average was May 23, 21Z and median was May 23, 06Z.
In the 52 cases (7 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 45 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 3. Average was Category -1.71 and median was Category -2.
In the nine tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between May 24, 18Z and May 28, 12Z. Average was May 26, 21Z and median was May 27, 06Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 4 false detections and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 618 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 783 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 704 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
May 8, 18Z:
May 9, 06Z:
May 9, 12Z:
May 10, 12Z:
May 11, 06Z:
May 11, 12Z:
May 11, 18Z:
May 27, 12Z:
May 27, 18Z:
The complete misses were from the following model cycles:
May 7, 06Z
May 7, 12Z
May 7, 18Z
May 8, 06Z
May 8, 12Z
May 9, 18Z
May 10, 06Z
May 10, 18Z
May 12, 06Z
May 12, 12Z
May 12, 18Z
May 13, 06Z
May 13, 12Z
May 13, 18Z
May 14, 06Z
May 14, 12Z
May 14, 18Z
May 15, 06Z
May 15, 12Z
May 15, 18Z
May 16, 06Z
May 16, 12Z
May 16, 18Z
May 17, 06Z
May 17, 12Z
May 17, 18Z
May 18, 06Z
May 18, 12Z
May 18, 18Z
May 19, 06Z
May 20, 06Z
May 20, 12Z
May 20, 18Z
May 21, 06Z
May 21, 12Z
May 21, 18Z
May 22, 06Z
May 23, 06Z
May 24, 06Z
May 24, 12Z
May 24, 18Z
May 25, 06Z
May 25, 18Z
May 26, 06Z
May 26, 12Z
As of this analysis, best track positions are available May 25, 18Z thru May 28, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the seven tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between May 22, 18Z and May 25, 18Z. Average was May 23, 21Z and median was May 23, 06Z.
In the 52 cases (7 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 45 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 3. Average was Category -1.71 and median was Category -2.
In the nine tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between May 24, 18Z and May 28, 12Z. Average was May 26, 21Z and median was May 27, 06Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 4 false detections and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 618 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 783 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 704 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
May 8, 18Z:
May 9, 06Z:
May 9, 12Z:
May 10, 12Z:
May 11, 06Z:
May 11, 12Z:
May 11, 18Z:
May 27, 12Z:
May 27, 18Z:
The complete misses were from the following model cycles:
May 7, 06Z
May 7, 12Z
May 7, 18Z
May 8, 06Z
May 8, 12Z
May 9, 18Z
May 10, 06Z
May 10, 18Z
May 12, 06Z
May 12, 12Z
May 12, 18Z
May 13, 06Z
May 13, 12Z
May 13, 18Z
May 14, 06Z
May 14, 12Z
May 14, 18Z
May 15, 06Z
May 15, 12Z
May 15, 18Z
May 16, 06Z
May 16, 12Z
May 16, 18Z
May 17, 06Z
May 17, 12Z
May 17, 18Z
May 18, 06Z
May 18, 12Z
May 18, 18Z
May 19, 06Z
May 20, 06Z
May 20, 12Z
May 20, 18Z
May 21, 06Z
May 21, 12Z
May 21, 18Z
May 22, 06Z
May 23, 06Z
May 24, 06Z
May 24, 12Z
May 24, 18Z
May 25, 06Z
May 25, 18Z
May 26, 06Z
May 26, 12Z
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