Verification of tracks made of Fay
I made six tracks of Tropical Storm Fay, before it was assessed as
a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after that point.
Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were six instances,
when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. At longer lead times, position errors were excessive.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available July 4, 18Z thru July 11, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the six tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between July 5, 06Z and July 10, 12Z. Average was July 7, 14Z and median was July 7, 09Z.
In the 12 cases (6 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 6 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 1. Average was Category -0.83 and median was Category -1.
In the seven tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between July 9, 06Z and July 14, 12Z. Average was July 12, 02Z and median was July 12, 00Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 71 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 44 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 129 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 510 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 661 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 746 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1092 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1211 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1375 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 1145 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1096 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1040 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 974 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 836 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
June 22, 06Z:
June 23, 12Z:
June 28, 18Z:
June 29, 12Z:
July 7, 12Z:
July 8, 06Z:
July 10, 06Z:
The complete misses were from the following model cycles:
June 20, 06Z
June 21, 06Z
June 21, 12Z
June 24, 06Z
June 25, 06Z
June 26, 06Z
As of this analysis, best track positions are available July 4, 18Z thru July 11, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the six tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between July 5, 06Z and July 10, 12Z. Average was July 7, 14Z and median was July 7, 09Z.
In the 12 cases (6 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 6 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 1. Average was Category -0.83 and median was Category -1.
In the seven tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between July 9, 06Z and July 14, 12Z. Average was July 12, 02Z and median was July 12, 00Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 71 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 44 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 129 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 510 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 661 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 746 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1092 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1211 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1375 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 1145 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1096 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1040 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 974 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 836 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
June 22, 06Z:
June 23, 12Z:
June 28, 18Z:
June 29, 12Z:
July 7, 12Z:
July 8, 06Z:
July 10, 06Z:
The complete misses were from the following model cycles:
June 20, 06Z
June 21, 06Z
June 21, 12Z
June 24, 06Z
June 25, 06Z
June 26, 06Z
Comments
Post a Comment