Verification of tracks made of Hanna

I made six tracks of Hurricane Hanna, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made three more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were seven instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available July 20, 18Z thru July 27, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the six tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between July 15, 18Z and July 23, 18Z. Average was July 19, 13Z and median was July 18, 18Z.

In the 15 cases (8 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 1 would remain the peak intensity, and 7 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 5. Average was Category 0.07 and median was Category -1.

In the nine tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between July 22, 18Z and July 27, 06Z. Average was July 25, 09Z and median was July 25, 18Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 60 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 111 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 285 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 4 false detections and 4 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 966 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 4 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 874 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 380 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 510 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 2 hits, 3 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 453 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 434 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 536 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 584 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 694 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

July 7, 12Z:

July 8, 06Z:

July 10, 06Z:

July 11, 12Z:

July 13, 12Z:

July 22, 06Z:

July 23, 12Z:

July 24, 12Z:

July 26, 12Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

July 12, 12Z
July 15, 12Z
July 16, 06Z
July 17, 06Z
July 18, 06Z

July 19, 06Z
July 20, 06Z