Verification of tracks made of Josephine

I made six tracks of Tropical Storm Josephine, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were eleven instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Longevity and peak intensity were excessive in the tracks.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 8, 12Z thru August 16, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the six tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between August 5, 06Z and August 11, 12Z. Average was August 8, 16Z and median was August 9, 03Z.

In the 19 cases (8 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 11 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 5. Average was Category 0.05 and median was Category -2.

In the eight tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), ultimate dissipation times ranged between August 15, 00Z and August 30, 06Z. Average was August 23, 06Z and median was August 22, 12Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 45 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 80 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 69 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 140 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 144 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 229 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 149 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 4 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 4 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 4 false detections and 4 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 1678 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1275 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 2 hits, 3 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1085 nautical miles.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

July 17, 12Z:

July 20, 06Z:

July 23, 12Z:

July 24, 12Z:

August 9, 06Z:

August 10, 12Z:

August 12, 12Z:

August 15, 06Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

July 26, 12Z
July 27, 12Z
July 28, 06Z
July 29, 12Z
July 31, 06Z

August 1, 06Z
August 2, 12Z
August 4, 18Z
August 5, 18Z
August 6, 12Z

August 6, 18Z