Verification of tracks made of Laura

I made five tracks of Hurricane Laura, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made three more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were ten instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 16, 18Z thru August 29, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between August 10, 12Z and August 20, 12Z. Average was August 14, 00Z and median was August 12, 06Z.

In the 17 cases (7 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 4 would remain the peak intensity, and 10 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 5. Average was Category -0.35 and median was Category -2.

In the eight tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between August 12, 12Z and September 1, 12Z. Average was August 24, 10Z and median was August 29, 03Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 41 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 3 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 79 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 109 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 105 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 158 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 278 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 376 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 474 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 1032 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 1331 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

July 24, 12Z:

July 26, 12Z:

July 29, 12Z:

July 31, 06Z:

August 18, 12Z:

August 20, 06Z:

August 24, 06Z:

August 27, 06Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

August 1, 06Z
August 2, 12Z
August 4, 18Z
August 5, 18Z
August 6, 12Z

August 6, 18Z
August 9, 06Z
August 10, 12Z
August 12, 12Z
August 15, 06Z