Verification of tracks made of Elsa

I made three tracks of Hurricane Elsa, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made four more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were eighteen instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 28, 12Z thru July 9, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the three tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between June 30, 12Z and July 2, 18Z. Average was July 1, 10Z and median was July 1, 00Z.

In the 21 cases (3 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 1 would remain the peak intensity, and 18 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 3. Average was Category -1.52 and median was Category -2.

In the seven tracks (made before operationally recognized extratropical transition), dissipation times ranged between July 5, 12Z and July 10, 06Z. Average was July 8, 10Z and median was July 9, 00Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 67 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 67 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 138 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 249 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 324 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 374 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 546 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 763 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1101 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 7 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 1026 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 8 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 8 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 9 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 10 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 11 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 10 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 10 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 10 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 11 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

June 26, 18Z:

June 29, 12Z:

June 30, 12Z:

July 4, 12Z:

July 5, 18Z:

July 7, 18Z:

July 9, 12Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

June 10, 12Z
June 11, 06Z
June 12, 12Z
June 14, 06Z
June 14, 12Z

June 15, 06Z
June 15, 12Z
June 16, 06Z
June 16, 12Z
June 17, 06Z

June 17, 12Z
June 20, 06Z
June 21, 12Z
June 22, 12Z
June 23, 06Z

June 23, 18Z
June 24, 18Z
June 28, 12Z