Verification of tracks made of Kate

I made no tracks of Tropical Storm Kate, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one track after cyclogenesis. Within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were five instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 22, 00Z thru September 1, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

Range, average and median of formation time are not applicable.

In the five cases (0 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 5 complete misses), range, average and median of peak intensity was Category -2.

In the one track (made before operationally recognized dissipation), range, average and median of dissipation time was September 6, 00Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 27 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 161 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here is the track once again.

August 30, 18Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

August 7, 18Z
August 11, 18Z
August 15, 12Z
August 21, 18Z
August 25, 18Z