Verification of tracks made of Linda

I made six tracks of Hurricane Linda, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were ten instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 8, 18Z thru August 24, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the six tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between August 10, 12Z and August 15, 06Z. Average was August 12, 20Z and median was August 12, 18Z.

In the seventeen cases (7 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 4 would remain the peak intensity, and 10 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category -0.29 and median was Category -2.

In the eight tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration), dissipation times ranged between August 14, 06Z and August 21, 00Z. Average was August 17, 07Z and median was August 17, 09Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 14 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 2 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 25 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 74 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 146 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 227 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 87 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 82 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 69 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 139 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 222 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 243 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 345 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 502 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 626 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 282 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 7 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 139 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 7 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 438 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 9 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 208 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 9 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 266 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 10 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 309 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 11 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

July 25, 12Z:

July 27, 12Z:

July 29, 12Z:

August 1, 18Z:

August 4, 12Z:

August 7, 18Z:

August 11, 18Z:

August 15, 12Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

July 20, 12Z
July 21, 12Z
July 22, 18Z
July 23, 06Z
July 24, 00Z

July 24, 18Z
July 26, 18Z
July 27, 18Z
July 30, 12Z
August 3, 12Z