Verification of tracks made of Nora

I made two tracks of Hurricane Nora, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were two instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 23, 00Z thru August 30, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the two tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between August 27, 12Z and August 28, 06Z. Average and median was August 27, 21Z.

In the five cases (3 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 1 would remain the peak intensity, and 2 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 2. Average was Category 0.00 and median was Category 1.

In the three tracks (made before operationally recognized dissipation), final dissipation times ranged between September 1, 12Z and September 4, 12Z. Average was September 3, 02Z and median was September 3, 06Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 39 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 102 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 167 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 275 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 524 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 687 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 1013 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 609 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 635 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

August 15, 12Z:

August 21, 18Z:

August 25, 18Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

August 7, 18Z
August 11, 18Z