Verification of tracks made of Olaf

I made one track of Hurricane Olaf, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were four instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 4, 12Z thru September 11, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the one track (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), range, average and median of formation time was September 7, 06Z.

In the five cases (1 track, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 2 would remain the peak intensity, and 4 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 2. Average was Category -1.20 and median was Category -2.

In the two tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration), dissipation times ranged between September 12, 00Z and September 12, 18Z. Average and median was September 12, 09Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 14 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 84 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 141 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 179 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 178 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

September 6, 06Z:

September 10, 12Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

August 21, 18Z
August 25, 18Z
August 30, 18Z
September 2, 06Z