Verification of tracks made of Terry

I made three tracks of Tropical Storm Terry, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were seven instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available November 2, 00Z thru November 10, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the three tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between November 3, 18Z and November 5, 12Z. Average was November 4, 14Z and median was November 4, 12Z.

In the eleven cases (4 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 7 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category -0.27 and median was Category -2.

In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized dissipation), dissipation times ranged between November 10, 18Z and November 21, 06Z. Average was November 14, 08Z and median was November 13, 12Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 46 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days 48 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 59 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 116 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 196 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 439 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 621 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 595 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 657 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 402 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 543 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 793 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

October 30, 06Z:

November 1, 18Z:

November 3, 18Z:

November 8, 12Z:

November 10, 12Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

October 15, 12Z
October 17, 12Z
October 18, 18Z
October 20, 12Z
October 21, 12Z

October 25, 06Z
October 27, 12Z