elioe's tracks

I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic 28 times in November 2018. Tracks were made of six systems. I made no Atlantic tracks in December, so this is my final ghost storm verification for 2018. In the calculations, crossover to Eastern Pacific or Mediterranean is considered equal to dissipation. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 5 false detections. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there were 1 false detections. At the lead time of 4 days ( 96 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 5 days ( 120 hours), there were 4 false detections. At the lead time of 6 days ( 144 hours), there were 5 false detections. At the lead time of 7 days ( 168 hours), there were 3 false detections. At the lead time of 8 days ( 192 hours), there were 5 false detections. At the lead time of 9 days ( 216 hours), there were 4 false detections. A...

Totals for Atlantic hurricane season: 15 (sub)tropical cyclones, 13 nameable storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 major (ACE=132) Totals for East Pacific hurricane season: 20 nameable storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major Totals for Central Pacific hurricane season: 10 nameable storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major Totals for Pacific typhoon season: 25 storms, 11 typhoons, 3 super typhoons (JTWC count) Totals for North Indian Ocean cyclone season: 2 storms, no hurricane-equivalent (JTWC count) One medicane, which is not of hurricane intensity Weak to moderate El Niño for 2018-19 winter, which decreases to very weak El Niño for the peak hurricane season, and later starts to re-intensify towards a strong El Niño Arctic sea ice extent minimum: 4.80 million km² Global annual average temperature: 0.95 degrees Celsius above 20th century average (0.01 degrees above the record from 2016) Individual storm tracks in Atlantic Circle coloration scheme    Tropical Storm ANDREA T...

I made 13 tracks of Hurricane Chris. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 36 instances, where I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Originally, timing of cyclogenesis was way too early. Later, it happened often, that the tracks didn't show movement to anywhere near U.S. East Coast. As of this analysis, best track positions are available July 4, 12Z thru July 12, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the 13 tracks, formation times ranged between June 27, 18Z and July 5, 18Z. Average was June 30, 21Z and median was July 1, 00Z. In the 49 cases (13 tracks and 36 c...