elioe's tracks

I made 19 tracks of Hurricane Alvin. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 18 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. The first detection of Alvin was way less than 16 days before cyclogenesis. Also originally, cyclogenesis was predicted well too late and well too far west. As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 22, 12Z thru June 29, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Getting out of the frame of East Pacific tracking map is considered equal to dissipation for the purpose of this verification. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the 19 tracks, formation times rang...

All of the following uses Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, and 1-min sustained winds. Totals for 2019-20 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season: 13-10-8 Totals for 2019-20 Australian region cyclone season: 7-4-0 Totals for 2019-20 South Pacific cyclone season: 5-3-2 Totals for 2019-20 South-East Pacific cyclone season: 1-0-0 Totals for 2019-20 South Atlantic hurricane season: 0-0-0  September Tropical Cyclone HIBU forms NE of Papua New Guinea on the 20th. Peak intensity 65 mph on the 22nd, landfall on north coast of New Britain with 50 mph winds on the 23rd. December Tropical Cyclone RITA forms on the 11th, peaks with 50 mph winds on the 12th, and travels through parts of Solomon Islands as a tropical depression on the 13th before dissipating. Tropical Cyclone AMBALI forms on the 20th, peaks with 45 mph winds on the 21st, and dissipates on the 22nd. Tropical Cyclone BLAKE forms on the 20th, and makes landfall on east coast of Cape York Peninsul...

These tracks, or lack of those, have been earlier discussed in separate blog entries system-wise or time-wise: Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce TD 11 Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Ghost storms Jan-Mar Ghost storms Apr-May Ghost storms Jun Ghost storms Jul Ghost storms Aug Ghost storms Sep-Oct Ghost storms Nov December had no ghost storm tracks. Xenophon Since this total verification includes only North Atlantic systems, Xenophon is omitted. I made 285 tracks of storms, that actually formed. I made 457 tracks of ghost storms. I missed 257 times cyclogenesis, which actually happened within 384 hours. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 7 hits, 18 false detections and 13 misses. 17 available position comparisons produce an average error of 96 nautical miles. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 19 hits, 34 false detections and 30 misses. 29 available position comparis...

Edited 22.5.-20. Oops, I had forgot DirigoDude from both this list and the ranking. 2019 Atlantic hurricane season named storms - hurricanes - major hurricanes Latest (and final) predictions as of June 1, 2019 italics indicates midpoint of a range 101010edwebster 12-5-2 2big_2fail 16-9-5 882MB 17-9-4 Abacosurf 13-6-2 Afrim Alimeti 22-14-7 Alessandra 11-6-3 Alexander Emmett 15-6-3 all4hurricanes 14-6-2 Andre Brooks 12-7-2 aquak9 11-5-3 Arif Samad 12-7-3 Athena 17-6-4 BaltimoreBrian 16-9-4 BarbaraGermany 15-7-3 Bearded Glory 15-7-4 BigAndBendy 14-7-4 bigwes6844 20-10-5 Bret 13-8-5 Bupsin 15-7-3 Caleb Hardee 14-8-3 Cameron Masiello 12-6-2 CarCar819 15-7-3 Caribboy 16-9-5 CatchDogg 14-6-2 ChiThom... 16-8-3 CHS-IOP 16-9-4 Craig Appleman 10-4-2 CrazyForStormsGuy 12-5-2 CyclonicEddz 19-9-6 daddyjames 14-7-2 Dennis Stansell 8-2-8 DewPointOneDrop 16-6-4 DirigoDude 17-9-4 Dorky McDorkface 15-8-3 dre33 18-9-4 earthisanocean 14-7-5 elioe 13-5-3 E...

As I'm writing this, season totals stand at 15-8-2. Oscar is not expected to be upgraded to a major. Post-season analysis may downgrade Isaac to a tropical storm, and/or add the February system as a subtropical storm. Whether it's 15-8-2, 15-7-2, 16-8-2 or 16-7-2, it doesn't matter in terms of the winner... Congratulations, capt deez ! The combined error is calculated as follows: sqrt( (E_ns/N_ns)^2 + (E_hu/N_hu)^2 + (E_mh/N_mh)^2 ) where E_ns is error and N_ns is actual number of nameable storms, E_hu is error and N_hu is actual number of hurricanes and E_mh is error and N_mh is actual number of major hurricanes. The following has the format of ranking. / predicted named storms / predicted hurricanes / predicted major hurricanes / combined error and Disqus handle at time of giving prediction 1. / 14 /  7 /  2 /  0.14167    capt deez 2. / 12 /  7 /  2 /  0.23585    Hoon 3. / 15 /  6 /  2 /  0.25000...

I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic 28 times in November 2018. Tracks were made of six systems. I made no Atlantic tracks in December, so this is my final ghost storm verification for 2018. In the calculations, crossover to Eastern Pacific or Mediterranean is considered equal to dissipation. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 5 false detections. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there were 1 false detections. At the lead time of 4 days ( 96 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 5 days ( 120 hours), there were 4 false detections. At the lead time of 6 days ( 144 hours), there were 5 false detections. At the lead time of 7 days ( 168 hours), there were 3 false detections. At the lead time of 8 days ( 192 hours), there were 5 false detections. At the lead time of 9 days ( 216 hours), there were 4 false detections. A...